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Could Mohalla sabhas save AAP in Delhi ? Challenges and Prospects for Aam Aadmi Party

  As Aam Aadmi party gears up for Delhi elections once again, the party has to come to terms with the fact that a lot has changed since 2013. First off Modi is no Man Mohan Singh and the BJP today is not like the Congress of 2013. In 2013 AAP was able to capitalize on the intense public anger against the string of corruption scandals that rocked the Congress party. Can AAP hold on to the anti-incumbency votes it garnered in 2013? Today, the face of BJP is Narendra Modi; inspiring leader highly visible across the country and very much in Delhi. Given Modi's superb performance so far, when compared to the Congress's term in office, there may be no reason for the voters to feel disappointed. Even the stars seems to be aligned on BJP's side;the global oil prices have fallen, economic growth is improving,stock market is at al time high, and given the NCP connection nowadays, I am sure the onion prices will not go up right before the elections...  On the contrary a section of the skeptical voters may move to the BJP camp.  Given all this a section of the voters who were skeptical of BJP may swing over to the BJP camp this time. From a messaging perspective, BJP has snatched the key messages of AAP such as its anti-corruption/good governance platform and even the jhaaddu by way of Swach Bharat campaign. AAP has been stuck with an image of a party that ran away when given the chance to govern, in my opinion mostly due to AAP’s sloppy media management around the issue. A critical factor that went in AAP’s favor last time is the youth engagement. Can AAP recreate the enthusiasm among the youth and the youth turnout in its favor? The Modi wave was able to carry the vast majority of the first time voters nationally in the Losabha election. But one also need to note that AAP improved the percentage of votes overall in Delhi by 3%, possibly by eating into to the Congress vote.  Arvind Kejriwal remains the second most popular politician in the country based on several polls including the polls by Netamaker, which would definitely boost AAP's standing. BTW, going off on a tangent here - I am not sure if India is producing enough national leaders who can effectively communicate and inspire the country. The Congress is still licking the wounds of a disaster of an interview by Rahul Gandhi. The sad state of Congress however could be a major factor in AAP's favor. Voters typically don’t waste their vote on a party seen as a loser. AAP's success would be dependent on how much of the traditional Congress votes it can garner in this election. That would be the vote that the BJP would also be after and of course the Congress would go all out to keep that traditional vote bank. For the Congress it is a fight for relevance/survival in this elections. In the most recent polls conducted by Netamaker, the youth by an overwhelming margin blamed Rahul Gandhi for the sorry state of the party.  Does not look like the voters, especially the youth have forgiven the Congress party. AAP also faces some challenges internally due to some rifts in the party due to Arvind Kejriwal's leadership style. But what may be an unexpected advantage for AAP is the work being done by the MLAs by way of Mohallasabahs, involving the voters in a collaborative decision making process while being accessible to the voters. This is a drastically different approach from the stereotype of MLAs of other parties who typically disappear after election to reappear for the next election. This intense community engagement experiment of swaraj, tied to the NGO mindset of AAP could be a hidden weapon in AAP's arsenal, which many underestimate.      But the question still remains - can the AAP effectively stop the Modi tsunami tearing through political parties across the country?  

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